Chapter 1

Start here: what is trading?

You do not need to know anything about money, economics or markets to read this. We start from zero and build up one small idea at a time.

A company, cut into small pieces

Imagine a lemonade business worth $1,000. The owner wants money to grow, so she cuts the business into 100 equal pieces and sells some of them for $10 each. Each piece is called a share (or a stock). If you own one share, you own one hundredth of the business.

Big companies do exactly this, just with millions of shares. When you buy a share of a company, you become a tiny part owner of it.

Why the price moves

A share has no fixed price. Its price is simply the last price someone was willing to pay for it. If more people want to buy than sell, buyers have to offer more and the price goes up. If more people want to sell, sellers have to accept less and the price goes down.

People want a share more when they believe the company will earn more money in the future. Good news (rising sales, a new product) tends to pull the price up. Bad news (losses, scandals, a weak economy) tends to push it down.

Key idea

A share price is not a judgement of how good a company is today. It is the crowd's best guess of what the company will be worth tomorrow.

Investing vs trading

InvestingTrading
Holding timeYearsMinutes to weeks
Main questionIs this a good business to own?Where is the price likely to go next?
Main toolsCompany numbers (Part 1)Charts and indicators (Parts 2 and 3)

Good traders use both. They want to trade solid companies, and they time their entries and exits with charts. That is why this guide covers both.

How this guide is laid out

  • Part 1, The basics: what a company is, its ticker, how it makes money, earnings reports, dividends and past performance.
  • Part 2, Reading charts: candlesticks, timeframes, volume, volatility, trend.
  • Part 3, Indicators: moving averages, MACD and RSI, with live charts.
  • Part 4, Trading wisely: risk, position size and habits that keep you in the game.

Throughout the guide we follow one made-up company, Sunny Lemonade Co., so the numbers stay simple and consistent. All charts use generated sample data so you can see the ideas clearly, not a real stock.

Check yourself: if many more people want to sell a stock than buy it, what happens to the price?
It falls. Sellers have to lower their asking price until enough buyers appear.

Chapter 2

How a trade actually happens

When you press "buy" in an app, several players work together in a fraction of a second.

Youplace an order in an app
Brokerthe company that holds your account
Exchangematches buyers with sellers
Sellersomeone who wants to sell
You never meet the seller. The exchange (for example the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq) matches your order with someone else's, and your broker records the shares in your account.

Bid, ask and spread

At any moment there are two prices on screen:

  • Bid: the highest price a buyer is offering right now.
  • Ask: the lowest price a seller will accept right now.

The small gap between them is the spread. If the bid is $11.98 and the ask is $12.00, the spread is 2 cents. Busy, popular stocks have tiny spreads. Quiet stocks can have wide ones, which quietly costs you money every time you trade.

The two orders you must know

Market order
Buy now
Fills immediately at the best price available. Fast, but you do not control the exact price.
Limit order
Buy at $X or better
Only fills at your price or better. You control the price, but it may never fill.
Stop order
Exit if it hits $X
Turns into a market order when a price is touched. Used to cap losses (Chapter 18).

When the market is open

The main US exchanges trade from 9:30 am to 4:00 pm Eastern time, Monday to Friday. Some brokers also allow trading before and after these hours, but there are fewer people trading then, so prices jump more and spreads are wider.

Check yourself: you want to buy, but only if the price is $11.50 or lower. Which order do you use?
A limit order at $11.50. It will only fill at $11.50 or cheaper.

Chapter 3

The ticker and the company profile

Before looking at any chart, know what you are actually buying.

What is a ticker symbol?

Every listed company has a short code called a ticker. It is how you find the company in any app. Some real examples: AAPL is Apple, MSFT is Microsoft, KO is Coca-Cola. Our made-up company, Sunny Lemonade Co., trades as LEMN.

A ticker can look like the company name or not at all, so always check the full company name before you buy.

The profile: answer these five questions first

What do they sell?
LEMN sells bottled lemonade to supermarkets.
Who buys it?
Grocery chains and convenience stores.
Sector / industry
Consumer Staples, Beverages.
Main rivals
Other drink makers.
How big is it?
Market cap of $1.2 billion.

Sector and industry

Companies are grouped by what they do. The most common system splits the market into 11 big sectors, such as Technology, Health Care, Financials, Energy and Consumer Staples. Each sector is split further into industries.

This matters because companies in the same industry often move together. If the whole drinks industry has a bad quarter, LEMN will probably fall too, even if it did nothing wrong. Always compare a company to its neighbours, not to everything.

Market capitalisation (market cap)

Market cap is what the whole company is worth at today's price.

Market cap = share price x number of shares

LEMN: $12 x 100 million shares = $1.2 billion.

SizeRough market capWhat to expect
Large capOver $10 billionSteadier, well known, moves slower
Mid cap$2 to 10 billionIn between
Small capUnder $2 billionBigger swings, more risk, more room to grow

The share price alone tells you nothing about size. A $5 stock can be a bigger company than a $500 stock if it has many more shares.

Check yourself: Company A trades at $200 with 10 million shares. Company B trades at $20 with 500 million shares. Which is bigger?
B. A is worth $2 billion, B is worth $10 billion. Price per share does not tell you size.

Chapter 4

How a company makes money

The profit and loss statement (the P&L, also called the income statement) is just a story of money coming in and going out.

Follow one year of Sunny Lemonade. It sells $500 million of lemonade. Then costs are taken away, step by step, until we reach what is left for the owners.

Blue bars show what is left at each stage, red bars are costs taken away, and green is the final profit. Sample numbers for the made-up company LEMN, in millions of dollars.

The lines, in plain words

LineMeaningLEMN
Revenue (sales)All money from selling lemonade. Also called the "top line".$500M
Cost of goods soldLemons, sugar, bottles, factory workers.-$300M
Gross profitWhat is left after making the product.$200M
Operating expensesOffices, marketing, salaries, research.-$120M
Operating incomeProfit from running the business itself.$80M
Interest and taxPaid to lenders and the government.-$20M
Net incomeFinal profit for the owners. The "bottom line".$60M

Margins: how much of each dollar is kept

Big numbers are hard to compare, so we turn them into percentages of revenue.

Gross margin
40%
$200M / $500M
Operating margin
16%
$80M / $500M
Net margin
12%
$60M / $500M

LEMN keeps 12 cents of every dollar it sells. A rising margin over time is a great sign. A shrinking margin means costs are growing faster than sales.

EPS: profit per share

Since you own shares, the number that matters to you is profit per share.

EPS (earnings per share) = net income / number of shares

LEMN: $60M / 100M shares = $0.60 per share. EPS is the single number most watched on earnings day (Chapter 6).

What to look for

Revenue growing year after year, margins steady or rising, and EPS growing. Growth that comes only from cutting costs, with flat sales, usually does not last.

Check yourself: revenue grew 10% but net income fell. What could explain it?
Costs grew even faster than sales, so margins shrank. For example higher ingredient prices, more marketing, or more interest on debt.

Chapter 5

Balance sheet and cash: is it healthy?

Profit tells you if a company is doing well this year. The balance sheet and cash flow tell you if it can survive a bad one.

The balance sheet: what it owns and what it owes

What a company owns (assets) is always paid for by either money owed to others, such as loans and unpaid bills (liabilities), or the owners' money (equity). LEMN sample numbers.
Assets = Liabilities + Equity
  • Assets: cash, factories, trucks, stock of lemons.
  • Liabilities: loans and bills it must pay.
  • Equity: what would be left for shareholders if everything was sold and all debts paid.

Debt: helpful, until it is not

Debt to equity = total debt / equity

LEMN has $200M of debt and $600M of equity, so debt to equity is 0.33. Under 1 is usually comfortable. Companies with heavy debt can be crushed when sales slow down, because interest still has to be paid every month.

Cash flow: the truth test

Profit on paper and actual cash in the bank are not the same thing. A company can report a profit while customers have not paid yet. The cash flow statement shows real money moving.

Free cash flow = cash from operations - spending on equipment

LEMN brought in $90M of cash from operations and spent $30M on new machines, leaving $60M of free cash flow. This is the money it can use to pay dividends, pay down debt or buy back shares.

Warning sign

Profits rising every quarter while free cash flow keeps falling. The numbers on paper may not be turning into real money.

Chapter 6

Quarterly and yearly results

Four times a year, a listed company must tell the world how it did. These days can move a stock more than any other.

The reporting calendar

Q1Jan to Mar
reported around Apr / May
Q2Apr to Jun
reported around Jul / Aug
Q3Jul to Sep
reported around Oct / Nov
Q4Oct to Dec
reported with the year
Annual reportFull year, most detail
early next year
A quarter is three months. Many companies follow the calendar year like this, but some use their own "fiscal year", so always check the company's own dates. In the US the quarterly report is called a 10-Q and the annual report a 10-K.

What happens on earnings day

ExpectationAnalysts estimate EPS and revenue
ReportCompany releases real numbers
Earnings callManagers explain and give guidance
Price reactsOften a big jump or drop

Beat, miss and guidance

The market does not react to whether results are good or bad. It reacts to whether they are better or worse than expected.

  • Beat: real EPS higher than the estimate (the "consensus"). Usually good for the price.
  • Miss: lower than the estimate. Usually bad.
  • Guidance: what the company says it expects next quarter or next year. Weak guidance can sink a stock even after a beat.
Example

Analysts expect LEMN to earn $0.15 per share this quarter. It reports $0.17, a beat. But it also says next quarter will be slower because of a lemon shortage. The stock falls 6% the next morning. Guidance mattered more than the beat.

For traders

Prices can jump (gap) overnight after a report, straight past any stop loss you set. If you do not want that risk, close or reduce your position before the earnings date. Every broker shows the next earnings date on the stock page.

Check yourself: a company grew profit 30% but the stock fell. How can that be?
The market expected even more (a miss against expectations), or the guidance for the future was weak.

Chapter 7

Dividends: getting paid to own

Some companies share part of their profit with shareholders as cash. That payment is a dividend.

LEMN pays $0.06 per share every quarter, which is $0.24 a year. If you own 1,000 shares you receive $240 a year, just for holding them.

The four dates

DeclarationCompany announces
the amount and dates
Ex-dividendBuy before this day
to get paid
RecordCompany checks
its list of owners
PaymentCash arrives
in your account
The ex-dividend date is the one that matters. You must own the share before the market opens that day. In the US today the ex-date and record date are usually the same day.

On the ex-dividend date the share price usually drops by roughly the dividend amount, because that cash is leaving the company. So buying just before the ex-date to "grab" a dividend is not free money.

Two numbers to check

Dividend yield = yearly dividend / share price

LEMN: $0.24 / $12 = 2%. Like interest on a savings account, but not guaranteed.

Payout ratio = dividends paid / net income

LEMN: $0.24 / $0.60 EPS = 40%. It pays out 40% of profit and keeps 60% to grow.

Too good to be true

A very high yield (say 10% or more) often means the price has crashed because investors fear the dividend will be cut. A payout ratio over 100% means the company pays more than it earns, which cannot last.

Chapter 8

Cheap or expensive? Key ratios

A $12 stock is not cheap and a $500 stock is not expensive. You only know by comparing price to what the company earns.

The P/E ratio

P/E = share price / EPS

LEMN: $12 / $0.60 = 20. You pay $20 for every $1 of yearly profit. Put another way, at today's profit it would take about 20 years of earnings to "earn back" the price.

  • A high P/E means investors expect strong growth. It also means more disappointment risk.
  • A low P/E can mean a bargain, or a business people expect to shrink.
  • Only compare P/E between companies in the same industry. A tech company and a utility are not comparable.

The company scorecard

Most stock pages show these numbers. Here is LEMN, and what each tells you.

Price
$12.00
Last traded price
Market cap
$1.2B
Size of the company
P/E
20
Price per $1 of profit
EPS
$0.60
Yearly profit per share
Revenue growth
8%
Sales vs last year
Net margin
12%
Profit kept per $1 sold
Dividend yield
2.0%
Yearly cash back
Debt / equity
0.33
How much is borrowed
52-week range
$9 - $14
Lowest and highest of the year
Beta
0.8
Swings less than the market
A simple first filter

Growing revenue, positive and steady profit, manageable debt, positive free cash flow, and a P/E that is not far above its industry. A company that passes all five is worth looking at on a chart.

Chapter 9

Past performance and the industry

How did the stock do, and was that good compared with everything else?

All three lines start at 100 (the dashed line) so you can compare them fairly. Over this sample year LEMN ended at 134 (up 34%), its industry at 114 and the market index at 108. LEMN beat both. Sample data; a market index is a basket of many stocks, such as the S&P 500.

Questions to ask about any stock's past

  • Return: how much did the price change over 1, 3 and 5 years?
  • Total return: price change plus dividends received. For dividend stocks this can be much higher.
  • Against the market: did it beat the index? If not, a simple index fund would have done better.
  • Against its industry: was the company strong, or was the whole industry just rising?
  • The worst fall (drawdown): how far did it drop from a high? Could you have sat through that?

The 52-week range

The lowest and highest price of the last year. A price near the top of the range shows strength; near the bottom shows weakness. Many traders watch the 52-week high closely, because breaking above it often brings in new buyers.

Beta: how jumpy is it?

Beta compares a stock's swings to the whole market. A beta of 1 moves about as much as the market. 1.5 moves about 50% more (up and down). 0.8 moves less. Beginners usually feel more comfortable with lower beta stocks.

Remember

Past performance shows how a stock behaved. It does not promise how it will behave. Use it to understand character, not to predict.

Chapter 10

Candlesticks: open, high, low, close

The Japanese candlestick is the most popular way to draw price. One candle squeezes a whole period of trading into four numbers.

The four numbers (OHLC)

  • Open: the first price of the period.
  • High: the highest price reached.
  • Low: the lowest price reached.
  • Close: the last price of the period.
Green (up) candle: close is higher than open. Red (down) candle: close is lower than open. The thick part is the body; the thin lines are the wicks (or shadows).

How one candle is recorded

During a 15-minute period, the price moves up and down hundreds of times. The chart only keeps four of those prices. Here is a real-looking path and the candle it becomes.

Left: every trade during 15 minutes. Right: the candle that is drawn. Notice how the wiggles disappear, and only open, high, low and close remain.

Reading what a candle says

ShapeWhat happenedWhat it can suggest
Long green bodyBuyers pushed hard all periodStrong buying
Long red bodySellers pushed hard all periodStrong selling
Long lower wickPrice fell, then buyers pushed it back upBuyers are defending that low
Long upper wickPrice rose, then sellers pushed it back downSellers are active at that high
Tiny body (doji)Open and close almost equalIndecision, a possible turn

A candlestick chart

Sample LEMN daily chart. Each candle is one trading day. Read it left to right like a story: a rise, a pull back, then a new rise.
Tip

A single candle is a clue, not a signal. Patterns mean much more when they appear at an important price level (Chapter 14) and with high volume (Chapter 12).

Check yourself: a candle opens at $10, goes to $11, drops to $9.50 and closes at $10.80. What colour is it, and where are the wicks?
Green, because the close ($10.80) is above the open ($10). The body runs from $10 to $10.80, the upper wick to $11, the lower wick to $9.50.

Chapter 11

Timeframes: 15 min, 1 hour, 4 hour, daily

The same price history can be drawn with candles of any length. Changing the timeframe is like zooming a camera in and out.

Each candle is:
The same sample price data, drawn three ways. Switch the buttons: short candles show every wiggle, long candles show the clear direction.

How bigger candles are built

A bigger candle is just smaller ones joined together. Four 1-hour candles make one 4-hour candle:

Open comes from the first small candle, close from the last, high is the highest high of all four and low is the lowest low.

Which one should you use?

TimeframeWho uses itGood for
1 to 15 minDay tradersExact entry timing. Very noisy.
1 hourDay and swing tradersPlanning trades within a day or two
4 hourSwing tradersTrades lasting days
DailySwing traders, investorsThe main trend. Most reliable.
WeeklyInvestorsThe big picture

The top-down habit

DailyWhat is the main trend?
4 hourWhere are the key levels?
1 hour / 15 minWhen exactly do I enter?
Look at the big timeframe first and trade in its direction. Use the small timeframe only to time the entry.
Common beginner mistake

Staring at the 1-minute chart. Every tiny move looks important, and you end up trading noise. Start with the daily chart.

Chapter 12

Volume: how many people care

Volume is the number of shares traded in a period. It tells you how much conviction is behind a price move.

The bars at the bottom are volume, one bar per candle, coloured like the candle above it. Tall bars mean a lot of shares changed hands that day.

How to read it

PriceVolumeMeaning
RisingRisingStrong move. Many buyers agree.
RisingFallingWeak move. Fewer buyers, may run out of steam.
FallingRisingStrong selling. Many want out.
FallingFallingSelling is drying up. May be near a bottom.
  • Breakouts (price pushing past an old high) are far more trustworthy with a big jump in volume.
  • Average volume matters too. A stock that trades only a few thousand shares a day is hard to get in and out of at a fair price.
Rule of thumb

Volume confirms price. A move on high volume is a statement. A move on low volume is a whisper.

Chapter 13

Volatility: how wild the swings are

Volatility is how much and how fast a price moves. It is neither good nor bad, but it decides how much you can win or lose.

Two sample stocks that both end up in the same place. The calm one moves in small steps. The wild one swings hard both ways, which can easily knock you out of a trade.

ATR: measuring the swing

The Average True Range (ATR) measures how much a stock typically moves in one candle. ATR(14) is the average range of the last 14 candles.

For each candle, the "true range" is the biggest of: high minus low, high minus the previous close, or the previous close minus low. This counts the overnight gaps too.

Sample LEMN with its ATR(14) underneath. When ATR rises, candles are getting bigger and the stock is more volatile.
Using ATR

If LEMN's ATR is $0.30, a normal day moves it about 30 cents. A stop loss only 10 cents away will probably be hit by ordinary noise. Many traders set stops 1.5 to 2 times ATR away.

Volatility usually rises around earnings, big news and market panics, and drops when things are quiet. Quiet periods with tiny candles often end with a big move.

Chapter 14

Trend, support and resistance

Before any indicator, learn to see the two simplest things on a chart: which way it is going, and where it tends to stop.

Trend

  • Uptrend: higher highs and higher lows. Each peak and each dip is above the last one.
  • Downtrend: lower highs and lower lows.
  • Sideways (range): price bounces between a floor and a ceiling.

Support and resistance

Support is a price level where buyers have stepped in before, acting like a floor. Resistance is a level where sellers have appeared before, acting like a ceiling. They form because people remember prices: "it bounced at $10 last time, I will buy there again."

Sample chart. Resistance (red) is drawn at the high where price turned down; support (green) at the low where it bounced. On the right, price returns to the old high and finally breaks above it. After a breakout like this, the old ceiling often acts as the new floor.
Tip

Levels are zones, not exact lines. Price often pokes a little past a level before turning. The more times a level has held, the more important it is.

Check yourself: the last three peaks were $14, $13.5 and $13, and the last three dips $11, $10.5 and $10. What is the trend?
A downtrend: lower highs and lower lows.

Chapter 15

Moving averages: SMA, EMA and friends

A moving average smooths out the daily noise so you can see the real direction. It is the most used indicator in the world.

SMA: the simple moving average

Add up the last N closing prices and divide by N. Tomorrow, drop the oldest price, add the newest, and do it again. The window "moves" forward, which is where the name comes from.

DayClose5-day SMAHow
1 to 510, 11, 12, 13, 1412.0(10+11+12+13+14) / 5
61513.0drop 10, add 15: (11+12+13+14+15) / 5
71213.4drop 11, add 12: (12+13+14+15+12) / 5

EMA: the exponential moving average

The SMA treats a price from 20 days ago the same as yesterday's. The EMA gives more weight to recent prices, so it reacts faster.

EMA today = previous EMA + k x (today's close - previous EMA), with k = 2 / (N + 1)

For a 10-day EMA, k = 2 / 11 = 0.18. Each day, the EMA moves 18% of the way towards the new price. The first EMA value is usually started from a plain SMA.

SMAEMA
Drag the slider. A short period hugs the price; a long period is smoother but slower. Notice the EMA (orange) always turns before the SMA (blue).

The whole family

TypeHow it averagesCharacter
SMA (simple)Every price counts equallySmooth, slow, easy to understand
EMA (exponential)Recent prices count more, fading smoothlyFaster, most popular for trading
WMA (weighted)Weights 1, 2, 3 ... N, newest gets NFast, a bit jumpier than EMA
SMMA (smoothed, Wilder's)Like an EMA with k = 1 / NVery smooth and slow. Used inside RSI and ATR
VWAP (volume weighted average price)Average price weighted by volume, reset each dayIntraday "fair price" for day traders

Popular periods

  • 9 and 20: short-term trend, used on intraday charts.
  • 50: medium-term trend on the daily chart.
  • 200: the long-term trend. Many traders simply ask: is the price above or below the 200-day average?

Three ways traders use them

  1. Direction: price above a rising average means uptrend. Below a falling average means downtrend.
  2. Dynamic support: in an uptrend, price often dips to the 20 or 50 average and bounces.
  3. Crossovers: a fast average crossing a slow one signals a change in trend.
Fast SMA (10)Slow SMA (30)
Green marks: the fast line crosses above the slow line (bullish). Red marks: it crosses below (bearish). On a daily chart, the 50 crossing above the 200 is famously called a "golden cross" and crossing below is a "death cross".
The catch

Moving averages lag, because they are built from past prices. Crossovers come after the move has started, and in a sideways market they give many false signals.

Check yourself: you want an average that reacts quickly to the latest price. SMA or EMA?
EMA, because it gives more weight to recent prices.

Chapter 16

MACD: momentum in one picture

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) shows whether the short-term trend is speeding up or slowing down compared with the longer-term trend.

How it is built

EMA 12fast average
MACD lineEMA 12 minus EMA 26
Signal line9-period EMA of the MACD line
HistogramMACD minus signal
The standard settings are 12, 26 and 9. Every charting app uses these by default.

When the fast average pulls away above the slow one, the MACD line rises: upward momentum is growing. When they come together, momentum is fading.

MACD lineSignal lineHistogram
Sample LEMN with MACD below. Green dots: MACD crosses above signal. Red dots: MACD crosses below signal.

Reading MACD

  • Signal cross: MACD crossing above the signal line is bullish; crossing below is bearish.
  • Zero line: MACD above zero means the 12 EMA is above the 26 EMA, so the short-term trend is up.
  • Histogram: bars getting taller means momentum is growing; shrinking bars mean it is fading, often before the cross happens.
  • Divergence: price makes a new high but MACD makes a lower high. The push behind the move is weakening, a warning of a possible turn.
Tip

Signal crosses work best in the direction of the main trend. In an uptrend, take the bullish crosses and be sceptical of the bearish ones.

Chapter 17

RSI: is it stretched too far?

The Relative Strength Index compares the size of recent up moves with recent down moves, on a scale from 0 to 100.

How it is calculated

  1. For each of the last 14 candles, note the gain (if it closed up) or the loss (if it closed down).
  2. Average the gains and average the losses (with Wilder's smoothing).
  3. RS = average gain / average loss.
  4. RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS).

If every day was up, RSI goes towards 100. If every day was down, it goes towards 0. Equal ups and downs give about 50.

Sample LEMN with RSI(14) below. The shaded band is 30 to 70. Red dots: RSI crosses up through 70 (overbought). Green dots: RSI crosses down through 30 (oversold). Notice the first rally kept RSI above 70 for a long time while price kept rising.

Reading RSI

RSINameMeaning
Above 70OverboughtPrice has risen fast. It may pause or pull back.
30 to 70NormalAbove 50 leans bullish, below 50 leans bearish.
Below 30OversoldPrice has fallen fast. It may bounce.
Overbought is not a sell signal

In a strong uptrend RSI can stay above 70 for weeks while price keeps climbing. Selling just because RSI is high is one of the most common beginner mistakes. Wait for RSI to turn back down and for price to confirm.

  • Divergence: price makes a lower low but RSI makes a higher low. Selling pressure is weakening, a possible bottom.
  • In uptrends RSI tends to stay between 40 and 80; in downtrends between 20 and 60. Dips to 40 in an uptrend are often buying chances.

Putting the indicators together

ToolAnswers
Moving averagesWhich way is the trend?
MACDIs momentum building or fading?
RSIHas the move stretched too far?
VolumeDo many traders agree with the move?

No indicator is right every time. They are strongest when several of them, plus a support or resistance level, point the same way.

Chapter 18

Risk first: position size and stop loss

Picking good trades matters less than you think. Controlling how much you lose on bad trades matters more than anything.

Why losses hurt more than gains help

If you loseYou need to gain back
10%11%
25%33%
50%100%
75%300%

A big loss is very hard to recover from. So professional traders set a small, fixed amount they are willing to lose on each trade, often 1% of the account, and never more than 2%.

The stop loss

A stop loss is a price where you admit you were wrong and exit. Decide it before you enter, and place it where your reason for the trade is clearly broken, for example just below a support level, not at a random round number.

Position size: how many shares to buy

Shares = (account x risk %) / (entry price - stop price)
Change any number. The calculator works out how many shares keep your loss at your chosen risk, and how much you stand to win compared with what you risk.

Risk to reward

Compare what you could win with what you could lose. Risking $0.60 to make $1.50 is a reward to risk of 2.5 to 1. With trades like that, you can be wrong more often than right and still make money.

The maths

10 trades, 2 to 1 reward to risk, $100 risked each. You win only 4 and lose 6: 4 x $200 = $800 won, 6 x $100 = $600 lost. Still $200 ahead, while being wrong 60% of the time.

Chapter 19

Trading tips and good habits

The habits below are what separate people who last from people who blow up their account in the first year.

Before the trade

  • Paper trade first. Most brokers offer a practice account with fake money. Use it for at least a few weeks before risking real money.
  • Write a plan. Entry, stop loss, target and the reason, written down before you click buy.
  • Trade with the trend. Check the daily chart. Buying in a downtrend is swimming against the current.
  • Check the earnings date. Know if a report is coming before your planned exit (Chapter 6).
  • Look for agreement. Trend, level, volume and an indicator all pointing the same way is a much better trade than one signal alone.

During the trade

  • Always use a stop loss and never move it further away to "give it room".
  • Do not add to a losing trade hoping to average down.
  • Let winners run a bit: you can move the stop up behind the price as it rises (a trailing stop).
  • Do not chase. If you missed the move, wait for the next setup. There is always another one.

After the trade

  • Keep a journal. For every trade: why you took it, what happened, what you felt, what you learned. Patterns in your mistakes show up quickly.
  • Judge the process, not the result. A good plan can lose and a reckless trade can win by luck. Over many trades, process wins.
  • Take a break after big losses. Trying to win it back straight away (revenge trading) usually makes it worse.

Things to avoid as a beginner

  • Borrowed money (margin) and leverage. They multiply losses as well as gains.
  • Options and other complex products, until you fully understand them (Chapter 20).
  • Tips from social media, "guaranteed" signals, and anything that sounds too easy.
  • Putting all your money in one stock or one industry.
  • Trading money you will need for rent, bills or emergencies.

Things to test for yourself

On a practice account, try these and write down what happens:

  • Buying pullbacks to the 20-day EMA in a stock above its 200-day SMA.
  • Waiting for a breakout above resistance on high volume.
  • Taking MACD crosses only in the direction of the daily trend.
  • Buying when RSI dips to 40 in an uptrend, versus waiting for 30.

Do not trust any rule, including these, until you have seen how it behaves over many trades.

Costs that eat profits

  • Spread on every trade (Chapter 2).
  • Commissions or fees, if your broker charges them.
  • Taxes on profits, often higher for short-term trades. Check the rules where you live.
The one thing to remember

Protect your money first. If you stay in the game long enough while learning, skill will come. If you lose it all early, there is no second lesson.

Chapter 20

Options: paying for time and speed

"I think LEMN goes up to $13 in the next two weeks, and I want to bet on that." That bet is called an option. This chapter shows what you pay for it, and why.

The bet in plain words

  • A call is a bet the price goes up. It gives you the right to buy at a set price (the strike) until a set date (the expiry).
  • A put is a bet the price goes down. It gives you the right to sell at the strike until the expiry.
  • You pay for the bet up front. That payment is the premium. If you are wrong, the premium is all you lose.
You pay the premiumfor example $0.25 a share
Someone sells you the betand takes the other side
Expiry daypast the target: you win
not there: the bet is worth 0
One option contract usually covers 100 shares, so a premium of $0.25 a share costs $25 for the contract.

Why you have to pay: the whole idea in one picture

Nobody knows where the price will be. But we do know roughly how far it can wander. The blue cone below shows the range of prices LEMN could reasonably reach, starting today. It grows wider the further out you look, and wider still for a fast-moving stock.

The premium is simply how much of that cone reaches past your target. More time or more speed means a wider cone, a bigger chance of reaching the target, and so a more expensive bet.

Bet lasts:
Stock speed:
LEMN is at $12. The up bet is a call with a $13 target, the down bet a put with an $11 target. The dark blue part of the cone covers about two thirds of likely prices, the light blue about 95%. On the right of the expiry line, the grey curve shows how likely each price is on expiry day. The green part is the chance of passing $13, the red part the chance of falling below $11. Switch the buttons and watch the cost change.
In a nutshell

An option price is the market's estimate of the chance your target is reached in time, multiplied by how far past the target it may go. Time and speed are what widen the cone, so they are what you pay for.

Time and speed together

The same two bets, priced for every combination. Read across for speed, down for time.

Time decay: the bet melts every day

If the price does not move, an option still loses value each day, because there is less time left for the move to happen. This loss is called time decay (traders call it theta). It is slow at first, then speeds up sharply in the last couple of weeks.

Value of one contract (100 shares) for a call with a $12 strike on a $12 stock at normal speed, if the price stays exactly at $12, from 6 weeks left down to expiry. Over the first 4 weeks it loses less than half its value; the rest disappears in the last 2 weeks.

What you win or lose on expiry day

Six-week bets on a fast stock, per share. The loss is capped at the premium (the flat part). Notice the break-even point is past the target: the price must beat the target by at least what you paid before you make money.

Price your own bet

Fair prices from the Black-Scholes model, ignoring interest rates and dividends. Real quotes will differ, because real option prices use the market's own guess of speed, called implied volatility.

Why most beginners lose with options

  • Being right is not enough. You must be right about direction, distance and timing. A move that comes one day after expiry pays nothing.
  • Cheap bets are cheap for a reason. A far target with little time costs very little because it almost never happens.
  • Speed is already in the price. Before earnings, options get expensive because everyone expects a big move. If the move is smaller than expected, the option can lose value even when you guessed the direction right.
  • Selling options is different. The seller collects the premium but can lose far more than they received. Leave that side alone until you understand it fully.
Before you try

Practise on a paper trading account first, and only ever buy options with money you are ready to lose completely. Trading options usually needs separate approval from your broker.

Check yourself: two calls on the same stock with the same target. One expires in 1 week, one in 6 weeks. Which costs more, and why?
The 6-week call. More time means the price can wander further, so the chance of reaching the target is higher.
Check yourself: why does a call on a fast-moving stock cost more than on a calm one?
A fast stock can travel further in the same time, so it is more likely to pass the target. The seller charges more for that higher chance.

Chapter 21

Glossary

Every term from this guide in one place, with the chapter where it is explained.

TermMeaningCh
AskLowest price a seller will accept right now2
ATRAverage True Range, typical size of one candle's move13
BetaHow much a stock swings compared with the market9
BidHighest price a buyer is offering right now2
CallA bet the price goes up: the right to buy at the strike until expiry20
CandlestickChart bar showing open, high, low and close10
Debt to equityBorrowed money compared with owners' money5
DivergencePrice and indicator moving in different directions16
DividendCash a company pays to its shareholders7
Dividend yieldYearly dividend divided by the share price7
EMAExponential moving average, weights recent prices more15
EPSEarnings per share, net income divided by shares4
Ex-dividend dateOwn the share before this day to get the dividend7
ExpiryLast day an option is valid20
Free cash flowOperating cash minus spending on equipment5
GuidanceWhat a company expects for the coming period6
Implied volatilityThe speed the market expects, built into option prices20
Limit orderBuy or sell only at your price or better2
MACDMomentum indicator built from EMA 12 and EMA 2616
Margin (profit)Share of revenue kept as profit4
Market capPrice times number of shares, the company's value3
Market orderBuy or sell immediately at the best price available2
Net incomeFinal profit after all costs, the bottom line4
OHLCOpen, high, low, close10
P/E ratioShare price divided by earnings per share8
Payout ratioShare of profit paid out as dividends7
Position sizeHow many shares to buy for a chosen risk18
PremiumWhat you pay for an option20
PutA bet the price goes down: the right to sell at the strike until expiry20
ResistancePrice level where selling has appeared before14
RevenueAll money from sales, the top line4
RSIRelative Strength Index, 0 to 100, overbought / oversold17
SectorBroad group of similar companies3
SMASimple moving average, plain average of N closes15
SpreadGap between bid and ask2
Stop lossExit price that caps your loss18
StrikeThe target price written into an option20
SupportPrice level where buying has appeared before14
TickerShort code for a listed company, such as AAPL3
Time decayValue an option loses each day as expiry gets closer20
TimeframeLength of time one candle covers11
VolatilityHow much and how fast price moves13
VolumeNumber of shares traded in a period12
VWAPVolume weighted average price for the day15

This guide is for education only and is not financial advice. Sunny Lemonade Co. (LEMN) and all chart data in this guide are made up for teaching.

For education only, not financial advice. Charts use generated sample data.